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Join Date 04/2004
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Will you change your mind about Kerry?

Just a question...

September 29, 2004 4:59:03 PM from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
Well I've just seen on the news that Bush and Kerry go head to head in twenty four hours time. That this is Kerry's last chance to win over the American public. As I'm not American and don't really know the feeling over there, is there really a chance for him to change things? Will 90mins really do anything for him. From what I have seen on JU, people are very passionate about their politics, and I don't think tey will be that easily swayed. As I said though, I don't know as I'm not there. Would be interesting to find out though. So people of JU. Will the television head to head have that much effect on the way you vote?
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Myrrander
Join Date 09/2004
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Reply #1 September 29, 2004 5:18:51 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
Kerry would have to eat a live baby on television to sway my vote. (away from him) But I don't think it's baby season right now...

damn

now I'm hungry
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dabe
Join Date 09/2003
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Reply #2 September 29, 2004 5:40:32 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
I concur with Myrrander. There is nothing Bush can possibly say that will lead me to vote for him. My vote is for Kerry, 1000%. But, I wil be watching the debates. Wouldn't miss 'em for the world.
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Angloesque
Join Date 12/2003
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Reply #3 September 29, 2004 5:45:37 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
I can't decide whom I hate worse. So, if anything, they're pushing me toward the Libertarians. Bless that Badnarik fella! Oh, and I will be watching the debates, with a great deal of scorn and ridicule for all of 'em.

-A.
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Texas Wahine
Join Date 08/2004
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Reply #4 September 29, 2004 5:52:31 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
Kerry's not exactly made-for-TV Between Lurch and Curious George, I expect hilarity to ensue . . . I think most people already have their minds made up, though, and I don't think the debates will change too much.
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Grim Xiozan
Join Date 08/2004
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Reply #5 September 29, 2004 5:52:45 PM
from PoliticalMachine ForumsPoliticalMachine Forums
I can't decide whom I hate worse. So, if anything, they're pushing me toward the Libertarians. Bless that Badnarik fella! Oh, and I will be watching the debates, with a great deal of scorn and ridicule for all of 'em.


Hear Here, I agree.

Basically it boils down to this: Is there a real drastic substantial difference between the DNC and the RNC, besides them having two different names? Seriously how much do they differ in all reality? I am not talking Conservatism or Liberalism but how much they truly differ or maybe I am, ah whatever.

Badnarik has my vote, and NOTHING these two clones with different faces can or will say can persuade me from doing so.

- GX
"I have no answers to your questions, but I can question your demands." - Motto Inspired by Laibach's WAT
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Gideon MacLeish
Join Date 06/2004
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Reply #6 September 29, 2004 5:56:16 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
In my opinion, being forced into voting for either of "the big two" would be like having to choose between eating moose shit and elk shit....no thanks either way.
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Angloesque
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Reply #7 September 29, 2004 6:09:20 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
I'll be interested to see if a larger number of people vote for third party candidates this year just out of frustration or disgust.
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landen81
Join Date 08/2004
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Reply #8 September 29, 2004 7:07:39 PM
from PoliticalMachine ForumsPoliticalMachine Forums
It's still throwing your vote away. I look at the positions that the Libertarian and Constitution parties stand for and feel that if their candidates were elected that the government would fall flat on its face and we'd turn into an anarchy.
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Grim Xiozan
Join Date 08/2004
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Reply #9 September 29, 2004 8:29:57 PM
from PoliticalMachine ForumsPoliticalMachine Forums
It's still throwing your vote away. I look at the positions that the Libertarian and Constitution parties stand for and feel that if their candidates were elected that the government would fall flat on its face and we'd turn into an anarchy.


Every vote counts is what I hear from the two major parties, but you go on and now say that it is a wasted vote, which is it do you support every vote actually counting or just the votes for the major parties?

Hypocrite, eh?

- GX
"I have no answers to your questions, but I can question your demands." - Motto Inspired by Laibach's WAT
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sandy2
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Reply #10 September 29, 2004 8:37:27 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
I think the debates will be hilarious. I remember the 2000 debates. Some of Bush's remarks gave me very good daily show like laughs.
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Bungy32
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Reply #11 September 29, 2004 9:14:22 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
Will 90mins really do anything for him. From what I have seen on JU, people are very passionate about their politics, and I don't think tey will be that easily swayed.


I don't really think the discussions here are representative of the folks who haven't made up their minds. Blogs and BBS seem to be places where people with already formed opinions come to write about them. Mostly, I think that seems to be for the purpose of finding like-minded folks. Some of us (I think I'm guilty) seem to satisfy some inner need by confronting alternative positions in, for lack of a better word, debate. I've yet to be convinced by the variety of positions on the Right here to "come on over," nor do I think I've convinced anyone to join the Left. If any undecideds lurking around here have been persuaded to go Dem, GOP, or some third (fourth, fifth?) way, they are probably not likely to jump in at this point.

I do think the debates are important. The country seems pretty evenly divided (with admittedly an advantage to Bush, although that's well within the MoE on most polls), and I have the sense that everyone is waiting for something to happen that will tip the balance. That could be the debates. Some folks are holding out for the "October Surprise." I've heard speculation on other threads that that might be incontrovertable evidence of Husseins stockpiles of WMD or bin Laden in chains. Maybe.

As someone who is not in favor of four more years of Bush, I have recently discovered something I fear even more. Whoever wins, it won't be by a landslide. I doubt it will even be by a significant enough margin to warrant a mandate. I just pray that it is a clear victory. Because if it isn't, if it's a repeat of 2000, I think it is going to get exponentially uglier in this country than it was then. And frankly, I'd rather have Bush for four more years than deal with the consequences of a broken election and the subsequent mob mentality. But don't think this reasoning is going to get my vote for Bush. I am voting my conscience and praying for a just outcome. Pretty much like everyone else here...
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WiseFawn
Join Date 01/2004
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Reply #12 October 3, 2004 1:07:06 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
I am happy to report that the debates actually did make a difference for many undecided voters. Many have now decided on Kerry!
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drmiler
Join Date 09/2004
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Reply #13 October 3, 2004 1:15:23 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums

Reply #12 By: WiseFawn - 10/3/2004 1:07:06 PM
I am happy to report that the debates actually did make a difference for many undecided voters. Many have now decided on Kerry!


Just maybe you should go look at this link. This is a state by state poll that is updated daily. And before being asked, yes Ralph Nader is considered in the poll.
Link
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Deference
Join Date 04/2004
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Reply #14 October 3, 2004 3:36:13 PM
from PoliticalMachine ForumsPoliticalMachine Forums
I'm voting for change, since Kerry is the most viable of the competition, he gets my vote.
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Lee1776
Join Date 08/2004
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Reply #15 October 3, 2004 3:48:42 PM
from PoliticalMachine ForumsPoliticalMachine Forums
I'm voting for change, since Kerry is the most viable of the competition, he gets my vote.


The problem is that change is every week with Kerry. You can have too much change.
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Politically Active
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Reply #16 October 3, 2004 4:03:57 PM
from PoliticalMachine ForumsPoliticalMachine Forums
I don't like either candidate. For lack of choice, I will go with Kerry. Bush will blow up our country if he gets the chance. For all who don't agree, go to http://www.johnkerryisadouchebagbutimvotingforhimanyway.com/
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Don Bemont
Join Date 06/2003
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Reply #17 October 3, 2004 5:31:32 PM
from PoliticalMachine ForumsPoliticalMachine Forums
Just maybe you should go look at this link. This is a state by state poll that is updated daily. And before being asked, yes Ralph Nader is considered in the poll.
It may be updated daily, but very, very few polls have been conducted and released since the debate. In fact, as of this moment, the only one I know of is in New Jersey Link It's much too early to know the momentary, let alone the lasting effect of that debate.
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drmiler
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Reply #18 October 3, 2004 6:39:09 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums

Reply #17 By: Don Bemont - 10/3/2004 5:31:32 PM
Just maybe you should go look at this link. This is a state by state poll that is updated daily. And before being asked, yes Ralph Nader is considered in the poll.
It may be updated daily, but very, very few polls have been conducted and released since the debate. In fact, as of this moment, the only one I know of is in New Jersey Link It's much too early to know the momentary, let alone the lasting effect of that debate.


Before you talk, read and learn!
Link

The key words here being " the only one that *I* know of"!!!
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sandy2
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Reply #19 October 3, 2004 6:47:44 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
Drmiller, read and weep. Did you go to the other, more reputable sites I gave you on the other article where you posted exactly the same link?
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drmiler
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Reply #20 October 3, 2004 7:05:37 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums

Reply #19 By: sandy2 - 10/3/2004 6:47:44 PM
Drmiller, read and weep. Did you go to the other, more reputable sites I gave you on the other article where you posted exactly the same link?


Read and weep? I think not! you OBVIOUSLY did not go and read the last link posted as to *where* they get their information. So I'll do it for you:




--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Polling Methodolgy

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Many people have questions about polls and polling methodology. Here is a brief description of the process and how we handle the polls.


How are Polls Conducted?
Several organizations conduct state political polls, usually when commissioned to do so by their customers, which include local and national newspapers and television stations, as well as political consultants, and candidates. Different polling organizations use different methodologies and there is considerable controversy about which method is most accurate. To conduct a poll, the company first develops a questionnaire (together with the client). The phrasing of the questions is known to influence the results. Consider the following options:

If the election were held today, would you vote for George Bush or John Kerry?
If the election were held today, would you vote for John Kerry or George Bush?
If the election were held today, would you vote for Bush, Kerry, or Nader?
If the election were held today, who would you vote for?
The questions are then read to 500 to 1000 randomly chosen people called by telephone. Usually additional questions are added about age, gender, ethnicity, political affililation, education, income, and other factors to allow breakdowns by these categories. Often there are questions designed to determine if the person is likely to vote. These may include:

Are you currently registered to vote?
Did you vote in 2000?
Did you vote in 1996?
Do you believe that it is every citizen's duty to vote?
Do you think your vote matters?
Some polling companies give the results based on all adults they survey. Others include only registered voters. Yet others include only likely voters, using their proprietary formula for determining who is likely to vote based on questions like those above. Depending on exactly how the voting questions are phrased and which category of respondents is included in the poll, some systematic bias may be introduced. Some pollsters publish the results for both likely voters and all registered voters. Until Sept. 18, this site used likely voters if there was a choice (not often). Starting Sept. 18 the choice was made for registered voters if there was a choice on the grounds that there is increasing evidence the old formulas for screening likely voters will not work in 2004.

A recent development is the use of automated polls. With this technology, the company's computer dials telephone numbers at random and then plays a message asking whoever answers the demographic and political questions, to which they respond by pressing buttons on the telephone. The percentage of people who hang up quickly when this technique is much higher than when a human being conducts the poll. Nevertheless, Survey USA and Rasmussen rely heavily on this technique because it is fast and cheap, allowing them to charge less than their competitors in the polling business. Traditional polling companies criticize the methodology on the grounds that it does not adequately filter out teenagers too young to vote but definitely old enough to play games with the system. Chuck Todd, editor of the Hotline, a daily political tipsheet was once called by Survey USA and was effortlessly able to pass himself off as a 19-year old Republican Latina, something he could never have done with a human pollster. In response, the companies using automated polling, have numerous studies comparing their polls to traditional ones showing that they get the same results as their nonautomated competitors. But the issue of automated polling remains controversial.

Yet another factor is the day of the week the calls are made. Calls made Monday through Friday have a larger probability of getting a woman than a man, because there are more housewives than househusbands. Since women are generally more favorable to the Democrats than men are, this effect can introduce bias. Also, calls made Friday evening may miss younger voters, who may be out partying, and thus underweight them in the results. To counteract this effect, some polling companies call for an entire week, instead of the usual three days, but this approach results in polls that do not respond as quickly to events in the news. The most extreme example of this approach is Rasmussen, which polls people in the key battleground states every day and summarizes the results for the previous month at the start of each new month. More information about the polling processes is provided by this tutorial on polling written by the Gallup Poll.

Who Conducts Polls?
The websites of some of the major polling organizations are listed below. Note that most of them do not give much useful data for free. To get the numbers, you have to buy a subscription, in which case a wealth of data is provided. Also note that a few of the polling companies keep track of the state-by-state electoral vote, but all of them use only their own data. Since no polling company polls every state every week, using only one company's data means that their maps are often based on obsolete data. For this site, we base the maps on the results of four paid subscriptions, some of which, like www.pollingreport.com, themselves subscribe to multiple polling companies. Other sources, such as polls published by major media outlets are also used.

American Research Group
The Gallup Poll
Mason-Dixon
Quinnipiac University Polling Institute
Rasmussen Reports
Research 2000
Strategic Vision (GOP)
Survey USA
Zogby


Now I suppose your going to try and tell me that they are not a reputable source.
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sandy2
Join Date 08/2004
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Reply #21 October 4, 2004 2:25:30 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
Yes, I am, because it weighs old polls and new polls equally. How many polls on that site were taken after the debate? The media did nationwide polls and have shown that Kerry is leading nationwide.
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drmiler
Join Date 09/2004
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Reply #22 October 4, 2004 2:33:52 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
American Research Group
The Gallup Poll
Mason-Dixon
Quinnipiac University Polling Institute
Rasmussen Reports
Research 2000
Strategic Vision (GOP)
Survey USA
Zogby


What a crock, any other time the polls created by by these groups would be fine. You yourself have used a couple of them on occasion. But *now* because they report Bush ahead of Kerry thay are all no good I have *seen* you quote Gallup *and* Rasmussen polls before!

[
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drmiler
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Reply #23 October 4, 2004 2:35:26 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
The media did nationwide polls and have shown that Kerry is leading nationwide.


IF they had done the poles they would be shown on the site as part and parcel of their content.
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