Imagine three civs A, B and C which all have a military rating of 100, but because of the different approaches (ship sizes, logistics, weapons, shields...) A could beat B, B could beat C while C is superior to A - it's not possible to calculate some absolut military power ratings.
Without making the 'military power' graph and the calculations behind it endlessly complex, it will always be more or less incorrect. We (and the AI) have to live (and die) with it.
I agree that there is room for improvement, but only to a certain extend. Making the formulars more complex and trying to consider every variable is usually not a good idea. Maybe just weighting big ships more or something like this could help.
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i did think of this- that is precisely why I made the suggestion I did in my solution part of my first post.
In the cxase above all THREE fleets would average out to about 50% military power rating, since A kicks B that means he gets a 100%, but A vs. C = 0% for him.
The crux of my idea is you take a statistical look at a player's fleet (I used an average to make it simple, but there are other ways of quickly stat analyzing a fleet for even more accuracy in the representative sample). Then you match off that "typical" ship with the other statistically typical ship of other fleets and get a rating of how effective it is. You plot THIS number as the fleet strength. The calculations are trivial, and if done at the start of every turn or whenever would hardly any CPU overhead.
An even better way would be do keep the data race-specific, so that fleet A compares itself to B, C, D, E, F. The AI would then have a MUCH clearer idea of it's strength vs. it's specific rivals. you could graph your fleet strenght *in relation* to a rival over time this way. Truly trivial calculation given that they are done only once at the start of a turn.
remember, I'm not talking about pitching a pseudo battle between every fleet, but looking at a fleet in a slightly more sophisticated statistical manner than SUMMING it. SUMMING = no information in this case. Worse, it means the AI has the WRONG idea about its rivals. This is a huge Achille's heel for GC2's AI.