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Gallup Debate Poll: Kerry Wins 52% to 39%

October 14, 2004 12:06:17 AM from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
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After another volley of rhetoric and statistics from both sides of the stage, Sen. John Kerry walked away as the clear winner of the final debate according to a flash poll conducted immediately after closing statements by the candidates. According to the Gallup organization as reported by CNN, Kerry won the debate with 52% while only 39% felt that George Bush had the better night.
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Daiwa
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Reply #1 October 14, 2004 1:30:38 AM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
Clicked on this headline in a sidebar and just knew it was blogic's.

He just loves flash debate polls. Course ABC's flash poll says draw & time will tell whether the debates had any lasting impact.

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Daiwa
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T_Bone4Justice
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Reply #2 October 14, 2004 3:07:29 AM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
A CBS News poll of uncommitted voters who watched the debate named Kerry the winner by 39-25 percent over Mr. Bush, with 36 percent calling it a tie. Fifty-nine percent said Kerry has clear positions on the issues. Before the third debate, only 31 percent of the same voters said Kerry had clear positions.

A USA Today/CNN/Gallup post-debate poll showed Kerry to be the winner by a margin of 52-39 percent.

A third poll conducted by ABC News, showed the debate to be a draw, with 42 percent choosing Kerry and 41 percent picking the president. More Republicans (38 percent) participated in the ABC poll than Democrats (30 percent).

Not one single poll that I have seen so far shows Bush as the winner. The only poll that shows a statistical tie is the ABC poll but it disproportionately had Republican participation (by 8% points) which is significant given that even with more Republicans participating in the ABC poll, Bush still couldn't claim a victory.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/09/08/politics/main641817.shtml
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drmiler
Join Date 09/2004
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Reply #3 October 14, 2004 10:12:52 AM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums

Reply #2 By: T_Bone4Justice - 10/14/2004 3:07:29 AM
A CBS News poll of uncommitted voters who watched the debate named Kerry the winner by 39-25 percent over Mr. Bush, with 36 percent calling it a tie. Fifty-nine percent said Kerry has clear positions on the issues. Before the third debate, only 31 percent of the same voters said Kerry had clear positions.

A USA Today/CNN/Gallup post-debate poll showed Kerry to be the winner by a margin of 52-39 percent.

A third poll conducted by ABC News, showed the debate to be a draw, with 42 percent choosing Kerry and 41 percent picking the president. More Republicans (38 percent) participated in the ABC poll than Democrats (30 percent).

Not one single poll that I have seen so far shows Bush as the winner. The only poll that shows a statistical tie is the ABC poll but it disproportionately had Republican participation (by 8% points) which is significant given that even with more Republicans participating in the ABC poll, Bush still couldn't claim a victory.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/09/08/politics/main641817.shtml


You have to remember that any poll numbers that you are looking right now are more than likely flash polls. Lets see what they say tonight, after they've had time to do a proper survey.
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Reply #4 October 14, 2004 10:20:26 AM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
"Let's see what they say tonight, after they've had time to do a proper survey."

True enough. For people who remember, polls done after the Gore-Bush debates showed that Gore had won, but it turned out that when you asked the same question a week after the debate, Bush had won. On the other hand, I wonder if post-debate momentum always favors challengers. I have no theory behind that, just a suspicion. I also think that in 2000, Republicans were much smarter at spin, but that the playing field is more even now.
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