My fleet normally runs around 200 to 250 ships in total.But I have faced down and watch my planets get wiped out by fleets that are 300 plus. I just quit a game and came here looking for a patch after I had two AI fleets each more than mine. My first fleet was 7 captial ships and 87 other ships. My second fleet was 5 capital ships and 91 other ships.
i think your confused with this being an unfair AI, only those "cheat"
you've spend to much resources on capital ships
my formula = about 1 capital ship every 25 frigates / cruisers
having 7 caps with 94 frigs / cruisers means you have a sick amount of spells to aid your fleet without an actual fleet... remember that caps arent the key to victory, tough important and able to suck up lotsa fire (specially start-game) u dont mass capitals unless u got large fleet (or if you've got RA with vasari)