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Gallup Sez Independents Strongly Favor Kerry: Prez Debate 2

October 9, 2004 3:04:18 PM from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
Independents overwhelming favored Kerry's performance in the second presidential debate, according to Gallup. While overall polling show a near tie, with Kerry having a two point advantage, Independents preferred Kerry 53% to 37%.

Also, the so called security mom vote appears to have returned to Kerry. Kerry led Bush among women 50% to 41%.

These are great numbers for Kerry.
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Chemicalkinetics
Join Date 09/2004
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Reply #1 October 9, 2004 4:39:09 PM
from PoliticalMachine ForumsPoliticalMachine Forums
Winning debate doesn't mean prefer. Blogic if you like Gallup poll so much, you should have read the previous poll regarding deabtes of previous elections. Reagan lost all two debates to Walter Mondale.

You are overlooking the important numbers in that poll, aren't you? The important numbers should be "Demonstrated he is tough enough for the job", "Was more believable", "Was more likeable", and "Agreed with you on issue you care about", not "Expressed himself more clearly". Sure Gallup has Kerrry won "Expressed himself more clearly", but Bush either tie or lead on the other questions. Do you seriously think most voters vote on "expression"?
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Daiwa
Join Date 07/2001
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Reply #2 October 9, 2004 5:01:26 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
You're nothing if not tenacious, blogic. Keep 'em coming.

Cheers,
Daiwa
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Reply #3 October 9, 2004 5:19:31 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
Actually, you convinced me it would be more accurate to label it "favor Kerry" rather than the original "prefer Kerry". I think the subtitle "Prez Debate 2" makes it clear I'm talking about debate polling.

Regarding the question of what qualities voters care about when they vote... Well, more polled viewers favored Kerry's performance, and that's overwhelmingly so for independent voters. We don't really have to debate which qualities matter more, because Gallup went ahead asked people their overall impession, and people favored Kerry.
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Chemicalkinetics
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Reply #4 October 9, 2004 5:30:41 PM
from PoliticalMachine ForumsPoliticalMachine Forums
No, it is not at all clear from the title. Gallup often reports poll on both debate and election standing in one single poll. I am really getting frustrated with you because you obviously have not read the polling data, so I have to list them here now:

Economy

2004 Oct 8 (post-debate)
Kerry 49
Bush 49

2004 Oct 6-7 (pre-debate)
Kerry 44
Bush 50


Situation in Iraq

2004 Oct 8 (post-debate)
Kerry 46
Bush 53

2004 Oct 6-7 (pre-debate)
Kerry 50
Bush 46


Terrorism

2004 Oct 8 (post-debate)
Kerry 39
Bush 56

2004 Oct 6-7 (pre-debate)
Kerry 45
Bush 52

So, Bush has lost his lead in eocnomy and tie with Kerry after the debate. However, Bush has reversed the standing on Iraq from trailing to leading (4%). He has widen the gap and lead Kerry in Terriosm. So explain this to me, if voters overall prefer/favor Kerry, how come the people trust Bush more than Kerry aftrer the debate? Look at the numbers, please. Yes, Independent voters think Kerry performs better in the debate, that doens't mean they prefer nor favor Kerry. How can you bundle them altogether. The Russian gymanistic team historically is better than the American, that doesn't mean most American prefer or favor the Russian. How can I make this clear to you? The question in the Gallup (that you are refering is), "who do you think did the better job in the debate?" Not "who do you prefer/favor?"

So, no. Stop misquoting Gallup. Frank Newport won't be happy if he hear you.
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Reply #5 October 9, 2004 5:43:14 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
Since I linked to the polling data for how people responded to the debate, you can see I didn't misquote Gallup. Anyone reading this discussion thread can verify that. Maybe we're talking past each other. You keep citing numbers related to issues or character qualities, while I was clear my numbers described people's overall impression of who won the debate. Here's what I wrote:
Independents overwhelming favored Kerry's performance in the second presidential debate, according to Gallup. While overall polling show a near tie, with Kerry having a two point advantage, Independents preferred Kerry 53% to 37%.
My description is accurate. Just follow the link.
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bakerstreet
Join Date 03/2001
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Reply #6 October 9, 2004 5:45:32 PM
from JoeUser ForumsJoeUser Forums
The data blogic cites above it this:

" Regardless of which candidate you happen to support, who do you think did the better job in the debate:

Kerry

Bush

NEITHER (vol.)

BOTH/
EQUALLY
(vol.)

%

%

%

%

Overall

47

45

1

7

Republicans

10

83

0

7

Independents

53

37

1

9

Democrats

87

8

0

5

Male

45

48

1

6

Female

50

41

0

9

(vol.) Volunteered response




53/37 is 15%. givena 5% margin of error, and the fact 9% of independants thought it was a tie, I think "strongly" is stretching it.

The title on the gallup page is

"Standoff in Second Debate"



I think blogic is trying to turn lemons into lemonaide. The claim made in the title is misleading as well, since this doesn't ask which candidate they are going to vote for, but who did a better job in the debate. They don't FAVOR Kerry, so the title is basically another blogic lie...

I think Kerry won the first one hands down, but I wouldn't vote for him if he was the only choice on the ballot...

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