blogic: How Will the Debate be Spun? You Predict the Winner!

All's Quiet Before the Coming Battle

In a few hours, my wife and I are heading off to a debate party at neighborhood bar. Mrs. blogic is a Kerry supporter; while yours truly is philosophically dedicated to supporting third parties. Truthfully, though, my decision would be much harder if I lived in a swing state. New York City is Kerry country, and the people and buildings are covered with buttons, t-shirts, and banners professing that.

The Debate and the Post-Debate Debate

The Debate

I'm looking forward to the debate, which I'm pretty sure I skipped four years ago, but I'm convinced that the debate itself will have little effect on the election. Neither candidate is likely to make a huge mistake, and neither is likely to say anything especially brilliant or witty. Kerry is good at showing how smart he is, while Bush is good at showing how focused he is.

For example:

Question to Bush: Would you ask your daughters to serve in Iraq?
Bush's answer: The evil agents of terror never stop trying to destroy free America; and I will never stop taking the fight to them.

Basically, that's the entire Bush campaign, and he'll stay on message and be very effective during the debate. It's hard to imagine Bush making any serious mistakes since his approach is to stress that there's only one important message. Kerry's message is probably a little more complicated -- Bush can't see reality and is endangering America by fighting a war in Iraq that makes us weaker in the War Against Terror -- and Kerry isn't as on message as Bush.

Advantage Bush; but like I said, I think the debate itself will basically be a draw.

The Post Debate Debate

This is what will cause the real poll movement. As was reported this morning, the Rove machine has already set up a talking points wire to five thousand blogs, to be transmitted live during the debate. That's amazing. Five thousand blogs? I wouldn't have even thought there were five thousand blogs that had any readers. Republican talking heads, along with Fox News, the Washington Times, and the New York Post, will be hitting those talking points all week. Endlessly. In 2000, people who watched the first debate thought Gore won, while those who heard about it later thought the opposite. That tells you everything.

Democrats Need to Stop Whining

But whining about this isn't the answer. The Democrats have been learning from Republican techniques, and while they're still not as pro-active, they've gotten much better at responding effectively. The Democrats will not get their talking points out as quickly. For one thing, there's no equivalent to Fox News; and while Air America Radio is an equivalent to Rush Limbaugh's stations, AAR isn't yet syndicated to anywhere near the same number of station. That will change by 2008, especially with the strong ratings that AAR has been getting, but for now it's not much of a factor.

But like I said, the Democrats are getting much better at quickly responding, so they'll probably quickly knock back the Republican spin. Frankly, so much of that spin is predictable, it's not as if the Democrats will have to exhaustively examine the Republican talking points before firing off their own.

Finally, Kerry has one advantage in all this: by traditional measures, Bush's presidency hasn't been particularly successful. The economy continues to limp along -- its tepid growth is actually slowing again -- and the Iraq War is only going well in Bush's rhetoric. Bush's advantage is that he's seen as a strong leader, but if Kerry can focus viewers on the impression that Bush has cocooned himself, Kerry will look much better a week from today.

How Will You Know the Final Score?

So if you're looking for how to score this, and to what to pay attention. Look for the Republican to strike quickly -- they'll score first and hard. If you don't see a quick Democratic response, you'll know that Bush won the debate. Watch for Democrats to slowly crank up their response, and watch for them to fight every charge and to initiate Republican-style attacks on Bush. If the Democrats succeed at this response, you'll know that Kerry was the victor.

Prediction

Bush is very focused, and will stay on message. It's hard to see him losing the debate. And while Democrats are learning from Karl Rove's spin techniques, he's still the Master and will out maneuver the Democrats in the talking points battle.

Overall advantage: Bush.

What do you think?

Who will win? Any predictions on what the spinning will be like? Guesses at what the defining debate moments will be? Best predictions will get notice in a future blog post -- and really, isn't that what the Blogosphere is all about?

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blogic:

Yesterday's CNN poll had Bush with a 52 to 39% advantage in "Bush will win the debate" question. However, there is a bigger point, Kerry has a chance to tell us what he would do as President and differentiate himself from Bush. If he does this, I think people will see that he would be just as tough on terrorism as Bush but much better for the economy. So, while I agree the opening bias favors Bush it is always good to be the underdog in the debate. All day the Bush people have been spinning that Bush is the underdog but that is ridiculous. Bush must perform or be the loser.

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I think you make a very persuasive case for the conclusions you draw. While I agree that a draw is a possibility, I also think there is enough opportunity in these debates to do something that could tip the statistical dead heat either direction. That something could be something positive, but in all likelihood it will be something negative -- some flaw of either candidate that the spin-meisters and media can latch onto.

5000 blog sites, eh? That's, um, impressive....and scary. Wow.

Very insightful...and more than a little depressing.

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but I'm convinced that the debate itself will have little effect on the election

I disagree, but it will all depend upon Kerry. So far he has been so incoherrant on Foreign policy that no one understands it. if he can come up with a single concise position, and (after the debate) stick with it, I think he will be the victor.

Endlessly. In 2000, people who watched the first debate thought Gore won, while those who heard about it later thought the opposite

No, everyone thought Gore won on points. Where he lost it was in his arrogance and smugness. People did not like him for that. Kerry has the same trap to avoid. But he is worse than gore at hiding his contempt for those who do not agree with him.

For one thing, there's no equivalent to Fox News;

Wrong again. How about CNN, ABC, CBS (dont even try to deny this one with Rather still there), NBC, MSNBC, NPR. In fact, they have more 'mainstream' media outlets than do the conservatives (nada - Fox is neutral). However, your other statement about he 5000 bloggers and talk radio will offset the mainstream media. AAR is going no where fast (check the latest Arbitron ratings), and as soon as Soros pulls his checkbook, it will fold.

All in all a good thought provoking article. As to your question, I dont think that Bush will win it. At best a draw. Why? because the pre-spin has him being so good (for someone so stupid), that he cannot win, just lose.

The pre-spin on Kerry is that he is an intellectual giant that cant talk to average americans, so if he does not connect, a draw. if he manages to convey the meaning of IS, he wins.

So I stick by my original statement. If Kerry forms a message, it can affect the outcome of the election. But no one, not Bush, Rove, or any media, can do that. It is simply Kerry's to win or lose. And hence to affect the outcome of the election.

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I predict the winner will be the News Networks that air the debate, talk about high ratings.

- GX
"I have no answers to your questions, but I can question your demands." - Motto Inspired by Laibach's WAT

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If all those *other* stations are so great then why is it FOX is the only one allowed in with cameras? Everyone will be watching Fox's feeds.

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