Yep, as soon as I make a statement about something, it's bound and determined to be wrong the next day! According to many polls today, Bush has got a lead. I don't think that will change the outcome of the actual end - vote, however.
Karl Rove is counting on a large Christian conservative vote coupled with gun owners who think Kerry will do something to their guns, and . . . um...well, drmiller and bloggists like him. Not much of a base, if you ask me. Look at it this way, Christians, and to narrow it down further, hardcore conservative Christians don't account for much of the population. These voters may be mobilized by the abortion and gay issues with George W standing for the federal marriage amendment (not going to actually happen, but he'll get some mileage out of the lip service) and against partial birth abortion ban (struck down three times by a mostly conservative court, wtf?). Then we have gun owners who recently saw the assault weapons ban expire. Does anyone truly believe they will all only vote Bush with the pictures of Kerry hunting in abundence? Kerry has only mouthed the Democratic party line on guns, I don't believe hunters will be dashing to the polls to save their gun rights this year.
On the other hand, you have the gay rights folk, the african american vote, and the majority of the population, the female vote mostly going to Kerry. This is just because these groups are most apt to vote democrat and because Bush has been most harmful to these groups during his tenure as president. These groups will bite him in the tookus come election time.
Then consider this, how many people have YOU met that have been groaning about how they should have voted Bush? That's right, no typo present, how many people have you run in to that have said, "Man, I sure am glad I voted Bush, that guy was right!". I don't know about you guys, but I've been doing door-to-door voter registration and canvassing in two towns here in MO, one is Jefferson City and the other a smaller town of about 17,000, Bush has actually lost Republicans / Conservatives, myself being one of them. Kerry isn't losing any Democrats, no matter how bad a candidate he might be 'cause the faith is so strong that anyone would be a better or even less dangerous pick then Bush.
So, polls or no polls, only in superficial terms is Bush winning, the pro-Bush edge has no legs, and come election time, we'll see how things pan out. Why does Bush want to limit the number of debates anyway.....?
