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mignuna

Join Date 01/2004

the mundane things we call miracles

... do they really happen ?... well, the short answer is 'yes' ;)

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One-in-a-million miracles happen, on average, 295 times per day in America alone, says Michael Shermer in this months’ Scientific American “Skeptic” column.

“I cannot always explain such specific incidents” Shermer writes, “but a principle of probability called 'the Law of Large Numbers' shows that an event with a low probability of occurrence in a small number of trials has a high probability of occurrence in a large number of trials”.

Shermer explains how, in their book ‘Debunked !', physicists Georges Charpak and Henri Broch present the application of probability theory to ‘miraculous’ events in an unusually enlightening way:

In the case of death 'premonitions', suppose that you know of 10 people a year who die and that you think about each of those people once a year. One year contains 105,120 five-minute intervals during which you might think about each of the 10 people, a probability of one out of 10,512 - certainly an improbable event.

Yet there are 295 million Americans. Assume, for the sake of our calculation, that they think like you. That makes 1/10,512 X 295,000,000 = 28,063 people a year, or 77 people a day for whom this improbable premonition becomes probable.

With the well-known cognitive phenomenon of confirmation bias firmly in force (where we notice the hits and ignore the misses in support of our favorite beliefs), if just a couple of these people recount their miraculous tales in a public forum, the paranormal seems vindicated. In fact, they are merely demonstrating the laws of probability writ large.

The full article is fascinating, and can be read here: Link

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Or as Terry Pratchett said:

Million-to-one chances crop up 9 times out of ten

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Ah yes, that's good stuff.

Another very common error is to mis-apply the "law of averages", especially in gambling establishments. If the roulette wheel has come up red nine times in a row, black is not more likely to come up this time. Yes, it's true that 10 reds in a row is very unlikely (approximately 0.001), but the odds of black coming up on any given spin are completely independent of the results of any previous spins; they remain at 18/37 (on a single-0 wheel) or 18/38 (on a wheel with 0 and 00).

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Good stuff, but sometimes it's just fun to believe in miracles.

"It's a miracle!"
Skeptic: "they are merely demonstrating the laws of probability writ large. ."
Me: "Oh just shut up and be happy about it will ya?"

Glad to see you back, Mignuna.

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Million-to-one chances crop up 9 times out of ten

what a great quote, historyishere. thanks for adding it.

Another very common error is to mis-apply the "law of averages", especially in gambling establishments

a common error, no ?

If the roulette wheel has come up red nine times in a row, black is not more likely to come up this time. Yes, it's true that 10 reds in a row is very unlikely (approximately 0.001), but the odds of black coming up on any given spin are completely independent of the results of any previous spins; they remain at 18/37 (on a single-0 wheel) or 18/38 (on a wheel with 0 and 00).

good stuff citahellion. it is true that it 'resets' (so to speak) on each spin, thanks for adding this, i enjoyed thinking it through

Good stuff, but sometimes it's just fun to believe in miracles

true, raven. they are lovely things to believe in

"It's a miracle!"Skeptic: "they are merely demonstrating the laws of probability writ large. ."Me: "Oh just shut up and be happy about it will ya?"

love it, raven. love it !. i hope you keep believing

Glad to see you back, Mignuna.

thankyou so much raven. it's really nice to be here.

vanessa/mig XX

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Actually, I've read that if red has come up 9 times in a row, it is ever so slightly more likely to come up for the 10th time than black

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But why? Every time the ball is released, it either lands on the red or the black, so how can where it landed before affect any future outcomes? It's the same with a coin, but a little simpler, I suppose, seeing as you only have 2 choices each time, with a 50/50 chance of going either way. No matter if you toss the coin 9 times and get a head each time, it is still a 50/50 chance it will be a head the next time.

Unless you have a magic coin, of course!

I've got to get me one of those. Or maybe, a few??

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If you can supply a credible reference for that, historyishere, I will be astounded.

The only question really is, if a series of improbable events happens, has the mechanism been tampered with? Nothing like a little electromagnetism to influence the roulette ball's final resting place, or a little shaving and rounding one half of the coin edge to change its aerodynamics.

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Can't argue with that. Yes, a series of improbable events is just that - improbable. But that isn't to say it is impossible.

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It was something I read in the running foot of a Bathroom Reader... though when trying to prove that claim, I did find this interesting article:

http://www.thegamblersedge.com/propensity.htm

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No matter if you toss the coin 9 times and get a head each time, it is still a 50/50 chance it will be a head the next time.

exactly, ariadne. thanks for your comment. logic is a funny mistress, isn't she ?

Nothing like a little electromagnetism to influence the roulette ball's final resting place, or a little shaving and rounding one half of the coin edge to change its aerodynamics.

citahellion, can i beg you to write a spy novel ?. you're just like james bond. but cooler. i'm talking sean connery cool. sean was the goods !. all brains and style. no smoke and mirrors for sean. or for citahellion !

It was something I read in the running foot of a Bathroom Reader... though when trying to prove that claim, I did find this interesting article:

thanks for that link, historyishere. the title is intruiging. going to read ....

vanessa/mig XX

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I may be all brains, but I'm very little style. (He says, scratching himself as he sits at the computer in cargo shorts and a T-shirt and sniffling mightily.)

Actually, though, maybe I can dig up a couple of stories I wrote a long time ago that are slightly mysterious in their own way.

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I may be all brains, but I'm very little style. (He says, scratching himself as he sits at the computer in cargo shorts and a T-shirt and sniffling mightily.)

sounds just fine !

Actually, though, maybe I can dig up a couple of stories I wrote a long time ago that are slightly mysterious in their own way

please let me know when you do, citahellion. pleeeeeeeeeeease

vanessa/mig XX

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You can find out about them just like everybody else, by visiting my JU homepage.

I will mention, though, that I posted another poem (here) for my daughter that I don't know if you saw, and a follow-up of sorts to your "Big. Fake. Boobs." article here which has so far only gotten a response from "mr. creepy" barbarafan, and therefore desperately needs more input.

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You can find out about them just like everybody else, by visiting my JU homepage.

i didn't know you had stories published, citahellion. you dark horse, you !

I will mention, though, that I posted another poem (here) for my daughter that I don't know if you saw

i didn't. i am always asleep when everything happens. but i will find it !

and a follow-up of sorts to your "Big. Fake. Boobs." article here which has so far only gotten a response from "mr. creepy" barbarafan, and therefore desperately needs more input.

yes, i can see the problem there. i'm onto it !

vanessa/mig XXX

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