I doubt very many people will take the XP->Vista upgrade route, as myself and many other are advising against it. Not only does it seem to result in a terribly munged installation (seemingly much worse than 98->XP ever did), but it requires RAM and graphic card hardware updates (beyond the expertise of most consumers) at a minimum, and some of the widest legacy hardware STILL does not work with Vista (and in the case of the Soundblaster Live series of sound cards, never will).
And there is NO WAY that businesses see any advantage to Vista in any way right now. They are just getting XP locked, loaded, and reliable, and quite honestly, there isn't any new feature of Vista that is attractive to the enterprise customer. A flashy new interface is the LAST thing an IT team is going to risk corporate stability on, haha.
So I fully expect Vista to be a "when you buy a new computer, it comes with Vista" issue. And with all the ridiculous segmenting of the Vista versions, even that is going to take some time for the OEM's to shake out. I'm sure they'd prefer to ship with Vista Ultimate at a fair price, but MS has made that impossible. So, they will try and ship with Vista Home Premium (Home Basic, Startup, and the N editions are dead on arrival, folks) and do their best not to make it sound like the consumer has to pay for an upgrade to their OS (to Ultimate) the minute they get home. And that is essentially what most people are going to have to do in order to get the "Vista Experience" that the MS ads and OEM's will be advertising but unable to deliver.
Given the lack of compelling features at release, all the negative press over the two version development cycle etc. etc., I think MS has really screwed the pooch this time around. Fortunately for MS, the new Office is getting rave reviews. I expect the corporate IT cycles to divert their budgets and training schedules in that direction.
